Semiconductor Outlook Lifted on Surging Memory Prices

SAN FRANCISCO—A prominent semiconductor industry watcher has more than doubled its forecast for industry growth in 2017 on surging average selling prices (ASPs) for DRAM and NAND flash memory.

IC Insights Inc. Wednesday (March 29) said it now expects IC revenue to increase by 11 percent this year due to a substantial upgrade to the forecasts for DRAM and NAND, which the market research firm now expects to grow by 39 percent and 25 percent, respectively. IC Insights had previously forecast that the chip market would grow 5 percent in 2017.
Market watchers generally agree that 2017 should be a year of moderate growth for the semiconductor market after the industry posted a surprise 1 percent increase in sales in 2016, but 11 percent is among the most aggressive predictions to date. The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization and market research firm Gartner Inc. are both calling for around 7 percent growth for the year.

The DRAM market growth is expected to be driven almost entirely by a 37 percent increase in ASPs compared with 2016, when DRAM ASPs declined by 12 percent, IC Insights said. NAND ASPs are projected to increase by 22 percent this year after falling 1 percent last year, the firm said.
IC Insights said DRAM ASPs increased from $2.41 in April 2016 to $3.60 in January of this year, a 49 percent jump. The spike was caused by a surge in demand from PC suppliers during the second half of 2016, the firm said.
Total DRAM bit volume demand is expected to increase by 30 percent this year while production capacity is expected to increase by just 20 percent, IC Insights said.
The DRAM market is projected to be worth $57.3 billion this year, by far the largest IC product category, according to IC Insights.
—Dylan McGrath covers the semiconductor industry and business news for EE Times.

http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1331537

Littelfuse Invests in Monolith Semiconductor

Global circuit protection provider Littelfuse, Inc. has made an incremental $15 million investment in Monolith Semiconductor Inc. Littlefuse now has a majority ownership position in Monolith, a Texas-based start-up company developing silicon carbide technology.

Silicon carbide is a rapidly emerging semiconductor material that enables power devices to operate at higher switching frequencies versus conventional silicon. This allows inverters and motor drives to operate with significantly improved energy efficiency and reduced system cost.






Under the terms of its agreement with Monolith Semiconductor, Littelfuse has committed to add to its investment once Monolith has achieved certain milestones. Littelfuse previously announced that its first quarter 2017 earnings per share guidance included $0.03 of expense to fund development activities with Monolith Semiconductor. This additional investment is expected to reduce earnings per share by $0.09 across the second through fourth quarters of 2017.

http://electronics360.globalspec.com/article/8337/littelfuse-invests-in-monolith-semiconductor

Counterfeiting and piracy: not just about fake watches

In February Frontier Economics produced a report detailing the economic problems associated with counterfeiting and piracy. WIPR spoke to Amar Breckenridge, a manager at the company, to discuss the report’s findings and why they are useful.

By 2022, international trade in counterfeit and pirated goods will total $991 billion. Digital piracy of movies, music and software will be worth between $384 and $856 billion. Legitimate economic activity valuing from $980 billion to $1.24 trillion will have been displaced.

These are just some of the forecasts in a report published by economics consultancy Frontier Economics in February. The study, “The economic impacts of counterfeiting and piracy”, was prepared for International Chamber of Commerce Business Action to Stop Counterfeiting and Piracy and the International Trademark Association.

It examines the prevalence of counterfeiting and piracy as well as their economic and social impact.

In an interview with WIPR, Amar Breckenridge, a manager at Frontier Economics, notes that the first three sections analyse how big the problems are globally, while the final part says ‘so what?’—and assesses the wider effects.

Section one draws on data from the OECD and European Union Intellectual Property Office on the trade in international counterfeits. This “authoritative starting point” is followed by examining the domestic prevalence of counterfeiting, according to Breckenridge. Next is a focus on digital piracy (film, music, software, etc).

“We estimate that the value of internationally traded and domestically produced counterfeit and pirated goods in 2013 was $710 to $917 billion,” says the report. “We estimate that, in addition to this, the global value of digital piracy in movies, music and software in 2015 was $213 billion.”

Section four addresses the question of the wider social and economic costs. This is divided into two parts, the first asking to what extent counterfeiting and piracy displace legitimate activity. The second, using econometrics and regression analysis, focuses on the relationship between changes in the incidence of counterfeiting and piracy and the effects on economic growth.

“This looks at what bang you get for your buck, as it tells you how much worse off you are due to piracy and the benefits of working to reduce piracy,” Breckenridge says.

Asked how accurate the forecasts are, he notes that in some cases Frontier Economics presented ranges which can be “very broad”.

“By definition, fakes are hard to observe directly so you have to start with whatever you can observe.”

“If you’re a government serious about economic growth, it also pays to invest in reducing the incidence of piracy and enforcing IP.”

Discussing the potential challenges to the findings’ validity, Breckenridge says the main difficulty is “starting with what’s observed and then making inferences, which are guided by methodology”.

“When estimating the value of digital piracy and films, we have numbers on illegal file-sharing, but you need to construct a price and draw on data that reflect consumer spending habits and what they pay for film products.” 

He continues: “You could argue that the prices are too conservative, or could be too low, or could vary by geography more than we allow for. In those circumstances we have erred on the side of caution—our estimates on the digital side of things are probably lower than reality.”

Critics will say that some estimates on counterfeiting and piracy lack integrity because the figures assume that consumers would buy a legitimate product, which would in fact be unlikely.

However, Breckenridge says, such a notion is not particularly relevant to large parts of the report as the first three sections assess how big the problems are.

He adds that it might be more relevant to section four, “but the weakness of that notion is that it’s outdated”, he argues, as it applies mainly to goods such as luxury products.

“If you look at what is being counterfeited, luxury is a very small part (3–4%). Counterfeiting is more prevalent where consumers would be unlikely to buy fakes knowingly, eg, electrical equipment, fuels, and machinery.”

The main conclusion of the report is that counterfeiting and piracy are pervasive across the whole economy and, for example, that the issue is not just about, say, fake watches, says Breckenridge.

“It shows the payoff to government in taking action to reduce the incidence of counterfeiting and piracy. One of the most significant findings is that even if you control for other factors affecting economic performance, there still is an effect that comes from changes in the levels of piracy,” he adds.

“This tells us that if you’re a government serious about economic growth, it also pays to invest in reducing the incidence of piracy and enforcing IP.”

With the report complete, the next step is for others to do more regional analysis and detailed “field work” such as working out how to influence consumer behaviour, Breckenridge argues.

“Part of the difficulty is that consumers might be uninformed, eg, in the consumption of fake medicines or foodstuffs, or not sufficiently alert to the costs of fake goods.

“Research into the link between counterfeiting and criminality is an area where people will invest more money,” he adds.  

Amar Breckenridge, Frontier Economics, International Trademark Association, piracy, counterfeiting, trademark, film, software, report, EUIPO, OECD,

http://www.worldipreview.com/contributed-article/counterfeiting-and-piracy-not-just-about-fake-watches?utm_campaign=Social%20activity&utm_content=50872567&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin

DFARS Webinar -Should Your Organization Be Concerned About DFARS 252.246.7008 and the Supply Chain Impact Regarding Obsolete and Counterfeit Components?

 Use the link below to register for a webinar that will help explain DFARS 252.246.7008.

Topics will include:

•The three tier supply chain model for sourcing electronic components
•Compliance to the DFAR regarding Inspection, Test, and Authentication (IT&A)
•Alternatives to redesign approaches with regards to improved sustainability
•Corporate flow down, liability, and business risk 

Global IC's own Lori LeRoy will be one of the panel speakers.

http://www.militaryaerospace.com/webcasts/2017/04/should-your-organization-be-concerned-about-dfars-252-246-7008-and-the-supply-chain-impact-regarding-obsolete-and-counterfeit-components.html

TowerJazz Rolls Out Silicon Photonics Process

SAN FRANCISCO—Specialty foundry TowerJazz Thursday (March 23) rolled out a silicon photonic (SiPho) process to complement its silicon-germanium (SiGe) BiCMOS process used for manufacturing optical transceiver electronics.

“We are excited to be entering the silicon photonics foundry space in order to provide solutions to a greater portion of the optical transceiver market for our customers,” said Marco Racanelli, senior vice president and general manager TowerJazz's RF & High Performance Analog business unit, in a statement.
Silicon photonics is a promising emerging technology for the production of photonic ICs, which transfer data using laser light in less time than conventional ICs.
The silicon photonic process, set to be available in the third quarter, is built to enable a range of optical fiber interconnect Tx and Rx front-end optical ICs, TowerJazz said. The process includes several versions of single-mode silicon waveguides, high speed germanium photodetectors, p-n junction modulators and enablement for edge and grating couplers, according to the company.
TowerJazz also announced it would collaborate with PhoeniX Software to provide process design kits for its customers developing optical networking and data center interconnects applications.

http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1331515

China pushes domestic chip development

BEIJING/SHANGHAI China's global acquisitions to fill technology gaps may have ground to a halt, but the country's quest to boost its semiconductor sector continues.
Chinese officials and tech executives agree that foreign regulators are increasingly wary of capital from the world's second largest economy, making it difficult to buy foreign chip providers. "We have to be prepared for more failures when it comes to overseas acquisitions," Sun Yuwang, a long-time industry veteran and president of China Fortune-Tech Capital, told the Semicon China conference in Shanghai on March 15. "The best time for us to buy good chip companies has already passed," he said.
Sun's investment fund is controlled by Semiconductor Manufacturing International Co., China's No. 1 contract chipmaker and smaller rival to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
China's overseas shopping spree to strengthen its chip sector and slash reliance on products from Intel, Qualcomm, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Toshiba, TSMC and MediaTek has struggled to gain traction. Botched deals, including Beijing-backed Tsinghua Unigroup's failed bids for Micron, Western Digital and three Taiwanese chip assemblers -- Siliconware Precision Industries, Powertech Technology and ChipMOS Technologies -- highlight the country's woes.
The administration of former U.S. President Barack Obama also blocked China's acquisition of German semiconductor equipment supplier Aixtron in December, citing national security risks. Furthermore, a White House report released in January claimed that China's push to build its domestic chip industry could hurt U.S. makers and further heighten defense concerns.
Even Japan's embattled Toshiba is treading lightly as it considers bidders for its profitable manufacturer of NAND flash memory, which is used in electronics such as smartphones. In a move that was widely interpreted to discourage Chinese buyers, the company said it will not sell to certain companies in countries that have political differences with Japan.
As countries view chip technology as critical to their own industries and national security, Sun said that the U.S., Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are unlikely to greenlight acquisitions by Chinese entities. Sun added that any deals actually made will likely be of little value or importance. He suggested that China develop its own industry by sourcing overseas talent rather than relying on foreign acquisitions.
Ding Wenwu, president of the official China Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, shared similar views but did not rule out international partnerships. "We do see limits and obstacles in buying foreign technologies," said Ding. "Under the circumstances, we should never forget the importance of cultivating our own chip sector without relying on other countries' support."
An Peng, director of state-backed Beijing E-Town International Investment and Development, said China should pursue deals in regions and countries that are more receptive to Chinese funds, such as Europe and Israel, and target relatively new companies that are still growing in order to avoid unnecessary scrutiny.
Donald Lu, managing director of Goldman Sachs, said that Chinese bidders should prepare more thoroughly before approaching foreign companies. He cautioned that Chinese investors are now gaining a bad reputation in Silicon Valley.

Still, China continues to urge Taiwan, South Korea and Japan to welcome Chinese investments while downplaying its efforts to compete with U.S. chipmakers. "We hope Taiwan could be more open to Chinese companies," Miao Wei, China's minister of industry and information technology, said on March 11. "This would be beneficial to both sides and also support our goal to facilitate unification and achieve the aim of one China," he said.
The minister added that it is unfair that while many Taiwanese businesses have profited in China, the island does not allow Chinese entities to invest in local companies. Miao made the comments at a press conference on the sideline of the annual meeting of the National People's Congress.
China and Taiwan split amid a civil war in 1949, but Beijing continues to claim the self-ruling, democratic territory as its own and has not renounced the use of force as a possible means to achieve unification. Relations between Taipei and Beijing have cooled significantly since Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party took office last May.
Despite the rhetoric, the two sides share close economic ties with annual trade totaling about $200 billion.
Wu Ping, head of Summitview Capital and founder of China's top mobile chip designer Spreadtrum Communications, told the Nikkei Asian Review on March 15 that he does not think South Korea, Japan and Taiwan would close their doors to Chinese investment as their domestic markets are not big enough to support their own chip industries.
Chairman Zhou Zixue of SMIC, on the other hand, tried to gloss over any potential rivalry with big chip powers. He argued that Chinese manufacturers are still too small to compete with the top 20 global players so pose no threat to the U.S.
Worldwide resistance notwithstanding, the booming Chinese market has become the most attractive destination for global semiconductor suppliers, while the nation's drive to become self-sufficient continues to gather steam. There will be more new 12-inch chip plants coming online in China than anywhere else, according to Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International, a global industry association that hosts the Semicon China conference. Of the more than 60 advanced, 12-inch chip facilities being planned or constructed globally from now to 2020, 26 will be located in China. Some are domestically owned while others belong to foreign companies.
A number of high-profile projects include three new plants by SMIC, Huali Microelectronics and Taiwan's TSMC along with two memory chip factories by Tsinghua Unigroup. "It's inevitable that China will grow its chip sector as it aims to fulfill the massive market and fit its own needs," said Chu Lung, president of SEMI China.
At the end of 2016, there were around 100 advanced chip facilities across the globe with Chinese owning less than five. "Our Chinese customers' plans are very aggressive," President and Chief Executive Peter Wennink of ASML, the biggest European semiconductor equipment maker, told Nikkei Asian Review on March 14. "The growth rate in China is faster than the rest of the world."

In 2016, China's chip industry grew more than 20%, according to China Semiconductor Industry Association, while research firm Gartner said that globally the industry only grew about 1.5%. However, almost all Chinese local chip experts warned that some frenetic but irrational investment in the sector could lead to oversupply in the future.
"We are not worried about explosive capacity growth in the coming years as there is need and the Chinese market is very big," said Wei Shaojun, professor and director of the Institute of Microelectronics at China's Tsinghua University.
"However, we do have serious concertsns that some companies simply invest to build uncompetitive plants that could later lead to a supply glut," Wei said.
Wei said the nation should consolidate resources, attract more international specialists, and inject more funds into research and development in order to become competitive in the long term.

http://asia.nikkei.com/magazine/20170323/Business/China-pushes-domestic-chip-development?page=2

TMD material forms semiconducting nanowires

A material that, when heated to 450°C, transforms from a 2D sheet into an array of 1D nanowires has been discovered by a team from the University of Texas, Dallas.

Because the nanowires are semiconductors, they could be used as switching devices. "These nanowires are about 10 times smaller than the smallest silicon wires, and, if used in future technology, would result in powerful energy-efficient devices," Kim said.
Using a transmission electron microscope, the researchers started with atomically thin, 2D sheets of molybdenum ditelluride. The material belongs to a class called transition metal dichalcogenides, which show promise in replacing silicon in transistors.
"We wanted to understand the thermal stability of this particular material," Kim said. "We thought it was a good candidate for next-generation nanoelectronics. Out of curiosity, we set out to see whether it would be stable above room temperature."
When they increased the temperature to 450°C, the researchers saw the molybdenum ditelluride layers began to transform into six-pointed star shapes.
The material was transitioning into hexa-molybdenum hexa-telluride, a 1D wire-like structure. This structure consisted of six central atoms of molybdenum surrounded by six atoms of tellurium.
"Then, when we examined the material more closely, we found that the transition we were seeing was not in any of the phase diagrams," Kim said. "Normally, when you heat up particular materials, you expect to see a different kind of material emerge as predicted by a phase diagram. But in this case, it formed a whole new phase."
"We would want to use the nanowires individually because we are pushing the size of a transistor as small as possible."
The researchers now have to determine how to separate out the nanowires and overcome technical challenges to manufacturing and mass production.

http://www.newelectronics.co.uk/electronics-news/tmd-material-creates-semiconducting-nanowires/152991/