Fully autonomous vehicles of the future will depend on a combination
of different sensing technologies – advanced vision systems, radar, and
light imaging, detection, and ranging (LiDAR). Of the three, LiDAR is
now the costliest part of that equation, and there are worldwide efforts
to bring down those costs.
Mechanical LiDAR units are currently available, priced in the
hundreds of dollars. Those figures have to come down to make the volume
adoption of the technology possible in the cost-conscious automotive
industry.
Along with the cost factor, LiDAR vendors must be able to show the
high performance and reliability of their products. It’s not good enough
to have 99% reliability for advanced driver-assistance systems and
automated driving. In the safety-critical aspects of automotive
manufacturing, the equipment has to demonstrate the “six nines” –
99.9999% reliability.
The importance of advanced technology in automotive vehicles cannot be overstated.
Intel’s
proposed $15.3 billion acquisition of Mobileye, a vision systems vendor
based in Israel, is a case in point. The chipmaker and Mobileye teamed
up last year with BMW to collaborate on autonomous-vehicle technology.
LiDAR is a key component of that technology, and investors are
opening their wallets for startups working on this technology. Blue-chip
investors last month put $10 million into TetraVue, a LiDAR startup in
Carlsbad, Calif. Investors include Foxconn, Nautilus Venture Partners,
Robert Bosch Venture Capital, and Samsung Catalyst Fund.
Autonomic, a self-driving software startup located in Palo Alto,
Calif., has raised around $11 million from Ford Motor and Social
Capital. The four co-founders previously worked at Pivotal Labs.
Technology drivers
Technavio forecasts the worldwide automotive LiDAR sensors market will
see a compound annual growth rate of more than 34% up to 2020. The
market research firm estimates the automotive LiDAR market was worth
$61.61 million in 2015, with most of the spending in the Europe/Middle
East/Africa region and in the Americas.
The company has a report available, Global Automotive LiDAR Sensors
Market 2016-2020, published last June, and it will be updating that
report during the third quarter of this year.
“LiDAR technology in automotive industry is witnessing rapid
evolution, both in terms of technical advancement and market dynamics,”
says Siddharth Jaiswal, one of Technavio’s lead industry analysts
for automotive electronics research.
Among the key developments cited by Technavio:
1. Cost reduction in an effort toward economies of scale.
LiDAR manufacturers are working on reducing the cost of the system by
employing efficient processing techniques, and in certain cases
positioning products as per customer segments. “For instance, the price
of the Velodyne LiDAR unit that is used on Google’s self-driving car is a
64-beam Velodyne HDL- 64E priced at $80,000,” Jaiswal said. “Velodyne
also offers 32-beam and 16-beam LiDAR units at $40,000 and $8,000
respectively, which can be used for economical projects. We expect LiDAR
technology to follow a similar path of ‘radar’ in the automotive
industry, where cost played a crucial role in market adoption. Hence
cost is a key focus area for the players.”
2. Compact design. Velodyne’s first LiDAR sensor,
released in 2005 was so big and heavy—it weighed about 5 kilograms—that
it had to be placed on the roof of the car. The weight is now less than a
kilogram, and a solid-state version is compact enough to fit inside the
car.
3. Sensor fusion. The technological trend of combining imaging
sensors
with LiDAR has been a popular technological research topic for over a
decade. The data output becomes more reliable if the fusion results in
confirming the output of one sensor by validating against the other
sensor type. But if the validation doesn’t prove the results of one
sensor against another, it makes the system unreliable.
4. Use of LiDAR beyond automobiles in road asset management.
Traffic Speed Road Assessment Condition Surveys (TRACS) were introduced
on the trunk road network in England in 2000. The U.K. Highways Agency
conducts routine automated surveys of trunk road pavement surface
condition under the TRACS survey. LiDAR is used to measure distances
from the sensor head, and potentially can deliver measurements of
objects much further from the survey vehicle than TRACS surveys.
“LiDAR is at a very lucrative position among the autonomous driving
sensor suites,” said Jaiswal. “A 360-degree map is its key
differentiator from other sensor technologies, and its capabilities with
respect to detection of objects and even during the complete absence of
light has set its place among OEMs. Also, the evident fall in price of
the most expensive device of the autonomous vehicle, the LiDAR sensor
unit, is likely to drive the adoption of automotive LiDAR sensors. For
instance, Velodyne introduced in 2016 its new LiDAR sensor, the ULTRA
Puck VLP-32A. It is claimed to be the most affordable LiDAR sensor
capable of addressing vehicle automation levels 1-5 as defined by SAE,
and is also very compact compared to the industry’s previous product
versions. Because of the solid-state architecture, the sensor is small
enough to be mounted on to exterior mirrors while extending the 3D
sensing range to 200 meters (656 feet). Velodyne has set target pricing
of less than $300 per unit in automotive mass production quantities—a
significant cost reduction from the $7,900 per unit of Velodyne’s
previous compact LiDAR.”
Moreover, LiDAR can be developed using mature semiconductor process
technologies. technologies, and the solid-state version has no moving
parts.
“LiDAR is perceived as a key technology for accurate 3D mapping,
vehicle awareness, navigation,” said Pierre Cambou, imaging activity
leader at Yole Développement. “First there is a race for performance and
durability, through the use of short-wave infrared (SWIR) diodes,
avalanche photodiode or single-photon avalanche diode. There is also a
huge effort in cost reduction. This is mainly trying to make the LiDAR
solid-state, through steerable lasers,
MEMS micromirrors, or detector arrays.
But Cambou noted there are different approaches to autonomous
driving, and LiDAR isn’t essential to all of them. “LiDAR is a
fundamental piece of equipment for autonomous vehicles, which I would
rather call robotic vehicles. There will be many levels of autonomy.
LiDAR might be necessary for city autonomous emergency braking, probably
in conjunction with radars and cameras. This multimodality approach is
well-defined now. Nobody really questions it anymore.”
And LiDAR’s market will increase as prices drop, from about $300
million today to about $600 million over the next five years. “Today
there are three entry points in automotive: $3,000, $300, and $30,” he
said. “Cameras are currently at the $30 price point and LiDAR is at
$3,000. The goal for the LiDAR players is to lower the cost and reach
the $300 target without sacrificing too much of the performance. We will
see such LiDARs entering the market, probably using solid-state
approaches, in the next three years.”
That is a small fraction of the overall vision sensor market. “The
consensus is there is almost the same revenue for automotive radar and
automotive vision today, but vision is 50% forward ADAS and 50% park
assist,” Cambou said. “We have reached $1 billion of automotive vision
sensor value in 2016 and the growth is 24% CAGR. The horizon is $7.3
billion in automotive vision sensor revenue by 2021.”
Amin Kashi, director of ADAS and Automated Driving at
Mentor Graphics,
a Siemens business, said that interest in LiDAR began more than a
decade ago due to the high cost of radar sensors at the time, which cost
about $500 apiece. LiDAR sensors were extremely expensive then, at up
to $260,000 per unit.
“Three years ago, you saw a number of companies or startups beginning
to invest in and look into the LiDAR space,” Kashi said. “Every major
Tier 1 somehow has started investing or acquiring companies in the LiDAR
space.”
That includes companies such as Continental and TRW. Kashi previously
worked at Quanergy Systems, which developed a mechanical LiDAR sensor
and is working on a phased-array LiDAR sensor. Quanergy’s solid-state
LiDAR sensor goes for about $250.
Meanwhile, Mentor Graphics, a Siemens company, is providing hardware,
software, and design services to OEMs and Tier 1s addressing LiDAR.
“We’re also providing software IP that their sensors can run. At the end
of the day, all of the sensors have to somehow be fused. There needs to
be a processing platform or system that takes all of this different
information and makes it available for the decision engine. That’s where
our interest is.”
Cameras, LiDAR, and radar are complementary to each other, providing
redundancy for the deficiencies of each technology, he said. That’s
critical because LiDAR can be less effective in fog and low clouds, dust
storms, heavy rain, and heavy snow.
“You still have to have very good resolution for the sensors you use
for your autonomous vehicles,” he noted. “There are a lot of companies
working on LiDAR technology, a lot of startups, and they have very
compelling concepts. The interesting thing is going to be is to see if
the road to commercialization is going to be successful. Some of these
are very imitative, but it’s a big challenge going from a great concept
into an automotive-grade sensor. And there is a lot of investment
associated with that.”
Making comparisons between the various LiDAR technologies isn’t
always straightforward, though, and it’s not made any easier as
competition heats up.
“There’s lots of misleading information out there,” said Louay
Eldada, CEO of startup Quanergy. “You have people who do traditional
mechanical LiDAR—big, spinning mechanical LiDAR that’s used in
helicopters—and they call themselves hybrid solid-state because the
semiconductor content is non-zero. That’s just deception.”
Such products have one small chip in a bucket-sized product,
according to Eldada. “In the automotive space, no one is still using
mechanical LiDAR. We believe strongly that our solid-state LiDAR is by
far the most exciting development in this space.”
Quanergy last year received $90 million in Series B funding, bringing
the total of its private funding to about $150 million and valuing the
company at more than $1 billion. Delphi Automotive, GP Capital, Motus
Ventures, Samsung Ventures, and Sensata Technologies invested in the
Series B round.
XenomatiX, another startup, also focuses on solid-state LiDAR.
“Startups are taking the lead in development that is considered to be
essential for automated driving,” said Filip Geuens, CEO of the
Belgium-based company. “There are huge investments and expensive
acquisitions by some of the big guys to get the sensors and software
required for automated driving. Most of these companies,
technology-wise, are going in the same direction. We expect they will
all hit essential hurdles. We are walking in a different direction and
doing things slightly differently, because we believe this is the best
way to overcome these hurdles.”
XenomatiX is trying to clear up sensing confusion among LiDAR
systems, with many systems utilizing direct time-of-flight sending out
one beam of light or one flash of light, Geuens said. “The direction we
are taking is to send out thousands of beams at the same time. It’s
quite a challenge. We are also heeding the eye-safety restrictions. That
is the most important hurdle that’s the same for all of us. We’re
sending out many beams at the same time, and that makes it even harder.
The upside is it makes the system so much more reliable in real
circumstances where multiple LiDAR systems are operating at the same
time.”
Some companies assert that cameras and radar are sufficient for
automated driving. Geuens doesn’t believe that. He said that driving a
car involves a 3D world, and LiDAR is essential for sensing in all
directions.
Market confusion
One big issue in the industry is the push-and-pull between the OEMs and
the Tier 1s. OEMs traditionally expect Tier 1s to bring them the
advanced technology they need, while Tier 1 companies need proven
technology before presenting it to the OEMs. According to numerous
industry insiders, the vendors of automotive components don’t want to
spend massively on R&D without OEM commitments to volume purchase
orders.
Intel’s pending purchase of Mobileye is “a big step forward” in
bringing high-technology products to the automotive industry, Geuens
said.
But the race toward autonomous vehicles, and the amount of
technological innovation required to get there, is bending some of the
previous approaches. “Right now, LiDAR technology as a whole is kind of
morphing,” said Jean-Yves Deschênes, president of Quebec-based Phantom
Intelligence. “That morphing is caused by the automotive industry.”
Five to 10 years ago, LiDAR was primarily used for architectural,
mapping, and military purposes. The units were typically huge, unwieldly
devices with many mirrors.
“A lot of people are looking for a solution,” he said. “Recent
research and companies we hear a lot about right now are trying to
replace those mirrors. We produce the scan LiDAR principle, by using
MEMS mirrors, beam steering, whatever. A lot of mapping is going in that
direction. We believe strongly at Phantom Intelligence that the
solution lies more in flash LiDAR technology. Flash LiDAR is pretty much
more of an analog to a 3D camera. Instead of having a narrow beam being
geared to progressively sweep that field of view to recreate the image,
you flash the image with laser pulse over a large surface and use
multiple pixels to reconstruct the image.”
LiDAR’s disadvantage are the echoes coming back to the sensor, noted
Deschênes, who favors what he calls more intelligent signal processing.
He predicts there will be five levels of autonomous driving, with fully
autonomous vehicles rolling out in 2025 and widespread adoption of the
technology in 2030.
Reality check
Put in perspective, LiDAR is an well-known technology that has finally found a lucrative market application.
“The principle of LiDAR – the light sent through the pulse and echo
of time-of-flight – has not really changed,” said one industry source.
“The physics have not changed ever since its invention, for the past 40
years or so. The evolving changes are more in the components and system
integration. There’s no fundamental principle change.”
Flash LiDAR has been in development for the past five years, the
source noted, likening it to a CMOS image sensor. “This is an area to
watch for—the flash LiDAR technology. It promises a very low cost of
solution, not necessarily high performance.”
Kevin Watson, senior director of product engineering at Redmond,
Wash.-based MicroVision, a publicly held company, disagrees. “I don’t
think that’s going to go anywhere,” he said of flash LiDAR. “For many
years, the Holy Grail of LiDAR sensors we thought to be a MEMS
mirror-based laser scanner, because they’re super-small, relatively
inexpensive to manufacture in great quantity, and very reliable. They’re
small enough to hide several around an automobile.”
Watson calls LiDAR “the most important sensor” in automotive
electronics. “Vision systems are great, but they’re a totally passive
system. LiDAR is active.”
But LiDAR also has its limitations. Radar can recognize a wall and
has a longer range and it also works in fog, while LiDAR and vision can
be confounded. Achieving Level 4 autonomy, the next-to-highest level, is
“a ways off,” said Watson, adding that may not be realized for a
decade. “It’s a very, very tough problem. It’s just a lot of work.”
http://semiengineering.com/lidar-completes-sensing-triumvirate/
